ML Analysis — FALMOUTH HOSPITAL
CCN 220135 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.1%, 24.5%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2125075.790 | +0.0762 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2171100.444 | -0.0633 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.117 | +0.0242 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1533878.483 | +0.0219 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.2%
Distress Risk
$11.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P78. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.722 | -0.183 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.609 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2125075.790 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.063 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 81.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.357 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.7M
Current margin: -2.2%
Projected margin: 4.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.328 | 0.735 | 40.7% | $6.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.357 | 0.598 | 24.0% | $4.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.722 | 0.838 | 11.6% | $764K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |