ML Analysis — STEWARD HOLY FAMILY HOSPITAL
CCN 220080 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.1%, 14.5%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 883581.399 | -0.0971 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 927362.771 | +0.0899 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.680 | +0.0303 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 293.000 | -0.0225 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P41. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.496 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.131 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 883581.399 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 293.000 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.523 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.331 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -5.0%
Projected margin: -3.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.523 | 0.818 | 29.4% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.538 | 0.596 | 5.8% | $865K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |