ML Analysis — BAYSTATE NOBLE HOSPITAL
CCN 220065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.8%, 14.8%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1004995.357 | -0.0802 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1173487.986 | +0.0596 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 70.000 | +0.0123 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 573889.717 | -0.0099 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
47.6%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-8.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P26. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.046 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.571 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1004995.357 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 70.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.349 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.345 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -16.8%
Projected margin: -8.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.349 | 0.609 | 26.1% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.609 | 0.746 | 13.7% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.571 | 0.843 | 27.2% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |