ML Analysis — LOWELL GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 220063 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -29.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.3%, 12.3%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1169209.010 | -0.0572 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 390.000 | -0.0376 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.966 | +0.0370 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1509026.995 | +0.0183 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.0%
Distress Risk
$10.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-26.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P77. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.624 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 390.000 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.120 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1169209.010 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.346 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.335 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.7M
Current margin: -29.1%
Projected margin: -26.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 25
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.346 | 0.494 | 14.8% | $7.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.624 | 0.922 | 29.8% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.545 | 0.599 | 5.4% | $810K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |