ML Analysis — MARLBOROUGH HOSPITAL
CCN 220049 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -21.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1405888.955 | -0.0242 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.809 | +0.0161 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.146 | +0.0160 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 67.000 | +0.0127 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.8%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-15.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P74. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.809 | -0.264 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.272 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.132 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 67.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1405888.955 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.331 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -21.8%
Projected margin: -15.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.272 | 0.600 | 32.8% | $3.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.537 | 0.713 | 17.5% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.809 | 0.831 | 2.2% | $144K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |