ML Analysis — ANNA JAQUES HOSPITAL
CCN 220029 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.7%, 15.9%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1121419.172 | -0.0639 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1294706.845 | +0.0447 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.250 | -0.0139 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.455 | +0.0097 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P49. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.578 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.455 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1121419.172 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.396 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 116.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -15.4%
Projected margin: -11.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.549 | 0.655 | 10.6% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.578 | 0.815 | 23.7% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.455 | 0.552 | 9.7% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |