ML Analysis — HEALTHALLIANCE-CLINTON
CCN 220001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -29.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.0%, 14.6%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1967870.144 | -0.0383 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.134 | +0.0194 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.194 | -0.0127 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.738 | +0.0121 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
45.9%
Distress Risk
$8.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-24.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P79. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.738 | -0.197 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.194 | +0.105 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.273 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1524645.232 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 125.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.314 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.7M
Current margin: -29.1%
Projected margin: -24.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.273 | 0.545 | 27.2% | $6.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.492 | 0.636 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.738 | 0.809 | 7.1% | $471K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |