ML Analysis — ADVENTIST REHAB. HOSPT. OF MD
CCN 213029 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside12/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.1%, 25.5%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 689367.917 | -0.1242 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 654887.814 | +0.1235 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.487 | +0.0224 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.567 | +0.0222 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.3%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
13.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P88. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.859 | -0.310 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.567 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 689367.918 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.579 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 97.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: 5.0%
Projected margin: 13.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 26
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.401 | 0.648 | 24.6% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.567 | 0.856 | 28.9% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |