ML Analysis — UPPER CHESAPEAKE MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 210049 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
65
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.2%, 28.4%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.403 | -0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.864 | +0.0555 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.672 | +0.0362 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.308 | +0.0217 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.6%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P59. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.778 | -0.234 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.864 | +0.221 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.038 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.495 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 202.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1585062.767 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 2.5%
Projected margin: 2.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.467 | 0.551 | 8.4% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.778 | 0.786 | 0.9% | $57K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |