ML Analysis — CARROLL COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 210033 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.0%, 25.6%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.421 | -0.0632 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.853 | +0.0543 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.640 | +0.0339 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Expense/Bed | 1421143.703 | +0.0291 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1375256.030 | -0.0285 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.0%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P63. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.853 | +0.216 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.751 | -0.209 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.478 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1375256.030 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 165.000 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: -3.3%
Projected margin: -2.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.494 | 0.554 | 6.0% | $901K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.751 | 0.783 | 3.2% | $215K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.853 | 0.854 | 0.1% | $20K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |