ML Analysis — UNION HOSPITAL OF CECIL COUNTY
CCN 210032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.6%, 24.0%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.516 | -0.0906 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.703 | +0.0385 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1484837.984 | -0.0132 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.4%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P36. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.703 | -0.165 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.404 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.080 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1484837.984 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 124.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -3.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.517 | 0.569 | 5.2% | $783K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.703 | 0.816 | 11.3% | $743K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |