ML Analysis — CHESTER RIVER HOSPITAL CENTER
CCN 210030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.7%, 26.9%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3883263.250 | +0.3216 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3822145.083 | -0.2667 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.809 | +0.0493 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
15.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.276 | +0.231 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.739 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.809 | +0.196 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3883263.250 | -0.136 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: 1.6%
Projected margin: 15.5%
Grade: B
Comps: 866
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.261 | 0.616 | 35.5% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.276 | 0.457 | 18.0% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |