ML Analysis — ST. AGNES HOSPITAL
CCN 210011 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
63
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.4%, 26.2%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3107689.552 | -0.1787 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2768663.541 | +0.1660 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.387 | -0.0532 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2168009.250 | +0.0430 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.721 | +0.0395 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 46%Turnaround possible (46%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$7.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P36. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.783 | -0.239 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.721 | +0.157 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2768663.541 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.106 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.357 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 183.000 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.9M
Current margin: -12.2%
Projected margin: -10.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.721 | 0.852 | 13.1% | $7.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.536 | 0.545 | 0.8% | $122K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.783 | 0.786 | 0.3% | $20K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |