ML Analysis — ST JOSEPH HOSPITAL
CCN 200001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.4%, 20.2%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1949545.454 | -0.0360 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1785524.838 | +0.0288 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.083 | -0.0278 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.159 | -0.0085 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 99.000 | +0.0078 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.5%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P50. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
ME distress rate: 61.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.159 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.600 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1785524.838 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.346 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 99.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.301 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -9.2%
Projected margin: -6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 13
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.346 | 0.460 | 11.4% | $2.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.540 | 0.665 | 12.6% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.600 | 0.753 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |