ML Analysis — LOUISIANA BEHAVIORAL HEALTH AMEND #1
CCN 194116 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.9%, 19.7%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 207841.326 | -0.1914 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 214980.775 | +0.1777 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.442 | -0.0691 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 150828.118 | -0.0240 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.500 | +0.0148 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.726 | -0.186 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.117 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 207841.326 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.500 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 89.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -3.4%
Projected margin: -3.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |