ML Analysis — SEASIDE HEALTH SYSTEM
CCN 194103 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 202989.391 | -0.1921 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 196040.672 | +0.1800 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.301 | -0.0286 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 99026.845 | -0.0257 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Commercial % | 0.929 | +0.0140 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
15.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 202989.391 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.488 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.324 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 64.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: 3.4%
Projected margin: 15.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 76
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.488 | 0.688 | 20.0% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.324 | 0.447 | 12.2% | $186K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |