ML Analysis — N. OAKS REHABILITATION HOSPITAL
CCN 193044 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 58.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.1%, 23.5%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 151292.259 | +0.1855 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 364209.000 | -0.1696 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.296 | -0.0251 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.119 | +0.0236 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 203410.080 | -0.0222 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
113.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.547 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 364209.000 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.263 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.558 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 27.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: 58.5%
Projected margin: 113.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 134
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.453 | 0.734 | 28.1% | $4.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.558 | 0.685 | 12.7% | $837K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.263 | 0.582 | 31.9% | $366K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |