ML Analysis — RIVERSIDE HOSPITAL OF LOUISIANA
CCN 192043 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.9%, 28.7%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 955738.786 | +0.0864 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 981772.214 | -0.0834 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.633 | +0.0333 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Occupancy | 1.100 | +0.0326 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.3%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
51.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 1.100 | -0.533 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.247 | +0.158 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.576 | +0.092 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 981772.214 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.461 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: 2.6%
Projected margin: 51.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.293 | 0.737 | 44.5% | $6.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.576 | 0.626 | 5.1% | $82K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |