ML Analysis — NORTHSHORE EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL
CCN 192023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -41.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 425611.033 | -0.1610 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 601997.233 | +0.1300 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.286 | -0.0239 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 273984.673 | -0.0199 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.9%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
1.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P92. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.286 | +0.197 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.644 | -0.110 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 425611.033 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.389 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.291 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -41.4%
Projected margin: 1.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 137
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.423 | 0.749 | 32.6% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.644 | 0.688 | 4.5% | $295K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.389 | 0.581 | 19.2% | $288K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |