ML Analysis — HARDTNER MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 191315 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -35.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.0%, 13.6%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1265963.720 | -0.0437 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.110 | +0.0263 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 345313.282 | -0.0175 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Log(Beds).
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
57.9%
Distress Risk
$9.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-4.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P71. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.273 | +0.234 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.174 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.513 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1265963.720 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.352 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.7M
Current margin: -35.1%
Projected margin: -4.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 130
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.313 | 0.721 | 40.8% | $6.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.273 | 0.685 | 41.2% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.352 | 0.586 | 23.4% | $865K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |