ML Analysis — ST. CHARLES SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 190300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
31
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.4%, 18.2%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 776122.718 | -0.1121 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 774021.923 | +0.1088 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 99175.780 | -0.0257 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.128 | -0.0226 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.173 | -0.0219 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
16.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.128 | +0.369 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.123 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.173 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 776122.718 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: 0.3%
Projected margin: 16.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 125
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.128 | 0.657 | 53.0% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.173 | 0.562 | 38.9% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |