ML Analysis — SPECIALISTS HOSPITAL OF SHREVEPORT
CCN 190278 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
17.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-11.1%, 45.5%]. P91 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5272080.267 | +0.5155 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4146563.733 | -0.3067 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1961502.740 | +0.0361 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 15.000 | +0.0209 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
31.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.372 | +0.142 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.443 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 5272080.267 | -0.218 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.267 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: 21.3%
Projected margin: 31.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.267 | 0.614 | 34.7% | $3.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.557 | 0.733 | 17.6% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.372 | 0.665 | 29.2% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |