ML Analysis — SOUTHERN SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 190270 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
33
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 861237.054 | +0.0981 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 880087.270 | -0.0976 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 158682.896 | -0.0237 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.180 | -0.0196 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.202 | -0.0187 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
15.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.180 | +0.320 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.190 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.202 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 880087.270 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 37.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: 2.1%
Projected margin: 15.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 126
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.180 | 0.651 | 47.1% | $3.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.202 | 0.565 | 36.3% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |