ML Analysis — AVALA
CCN 190267 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.3%, 26.3%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3046426.714 | +0.2048 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2820464.762 | -0.1433 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.169 | -0.0224 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.131 | +0.0202 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
17.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.233 | +0.272 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.223 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.169 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3046426.714 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: 7.4%
Projected margin: 17.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 121
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.169 | 0.608 | 43.9% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.233 | 0.701 | 46.9% | $3.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |