ML Analysis — THE SPINE HOSPITAL OF LOUISIANA
CCN 190266 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 35.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.4%, 33.2%]. P73 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2495137.913 | +0.1278 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.271 | -0.0145 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.254 | -0.0128 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
44.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.271 | +0.236 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.251 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2495137.913 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.254 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: 35.4%
Projected margin: 44.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 125
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.271 | 0.698 | 42.7% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.254 | 0.599 | 34.5% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |