ML Analysis — LAFAYETTE SURGICAL SPECIALTY HOSPITA
CCN 190259 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2443785.900 | +0.1207 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2221764.050 | -0.0696 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.163 | -0.0206 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
20.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P66. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.163 | +0.336 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2443785.900 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.315 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.302 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: 9.1%
Projected margin: 20.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 126
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.163 | 0.698 | 53.4% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.315 | 0.598 | 28.3% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.694 | 0.736 | 4.2% | $624K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |