ML Analysis — GLENWOOD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 190160 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.8%, 21.8%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 846477.316 | -0.1023 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 896719.298 | +0.0937 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.110 | +0.0262 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.385 | +0.0235 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.176 | -0.0215 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.0%
Distress Risk
$7.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P43. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.432 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.177 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 846477.317 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 218.000 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.357 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.9M
Current margin: -5.9%
Projected margin: -1.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.625 | 0.835 | 21.1% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.177 | 0.306 | 13.0% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.432 | 0.723 | 29.2% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |