ML Analysis — THE BROOK - DUPONT
CCN 184007 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 37.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.4%, 19.2%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 217761.807 | +0.1773 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 346566.977 | -0.1721 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.712 | -0.1470 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.749 | +0.0427 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.1%
Distress Risk
$238K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
38.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P95. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.749 | +0.170 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 346566.977 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.601 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.044 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 88.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $238K
Current margin: 37.2%
Projected margin: 38.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 47
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.601 | 0.637 | 3.6% | $238K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |