ML Analysis — KENTUCKY RIVER MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 180139 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.8%, 20.8%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 648409.082 | -0.1299 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 670384.918 | +0.1216 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.100 | +0.0293 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.147 | -0.0248 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
7.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P58. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.256 | +0.249 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.147 | -0.099 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 648409.082 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.064 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.259 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -3.4%
Projected margin: 7.7%
Grade: B
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.256 | 0.551 | 29.5% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.147 | 0.412 | 26.5% | $983K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.677 | 0.716 | 3.9% | $581K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |