ML Analysis — BAPTIST HEALTH PADUCAH
CCN 180104 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.0%, 30.6%]. P68 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2061390.237 | +0.0673 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2071257.521 | -0.0510 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.099 | +0.0294 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.145 | -0.0251 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 54%Turnaround possible (54%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.8%
Distress Risk
$11.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P22. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.145 | -0.100 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.008 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.585 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2061390.237 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 190.000 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.307 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.4M
Current margin: -0.5%
Projected margin: 2.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.145 | 0.346 | 20.2% | $9.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.686 | 0.802 | 11.7% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.585 | 0.649 | 6.4% | $424K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |