ML Analysis — MIDAMERICA REHABILITATION HOSPITAL
CCN 173026 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.0%, 12.6%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 309244.816 | -0.1773 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 309566.122 | +0.1660 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.619 | +0.0280 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 164244.703 | -0.0235 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
6.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.619 | +0.111 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.548 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 309244.816 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 98.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.531 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: -0.1%
Projected margin: 6.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 23
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.452 | 0.580 | 12.9% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |