ML Analysis — SSH - KANSAS CITY
CCN 172005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.9%, 12.7%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 560721.250 | -0.1422 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 647739.925 | +0.1244 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.086 | +0.0331 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.152 | -0.0243 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.1%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-7.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P87. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.848 | -0.300 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.152 | -0.097 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.008 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 560721.250 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.424 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -15.5%
Projected margin: -7.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 91
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.152 | 0.763 | 61.1% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.569 | 0.582 | 1.4% | $203K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |