ML Analysis — GREAT PLAINS OF REPUBLIC CO. INC
CCN 171361 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.6%, 9.0%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 675613.560 | -0.1261 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 754838.920 | +0.1112 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.524 | -0.0927 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.820 | +0.0507 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P55. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.820 | +0.201 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.639 | -0.106 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 675613.560 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.358 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: -11.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 110
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |