ML Analysis — MERCY HOSPITAL COLUMBUS
CCN 171308 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.8%, 9.8%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 233888.400 | -0.1878 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 218654.680 | +0.1772 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.807 | +0.0491 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 12610.750 | -0.0285 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
130.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.054 | +0.437 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.787 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.807 | +0.195 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 233888.400 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.2M
Current margin: 6.5%
Projected margin: 130.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 110
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.213 | 0.537 | 32.3% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.054 | 0.413 | 35.9% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.807 | 0.815 | 0.8% | $6K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |