ML Analysis — KANSAS SPINE & SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 170196 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 19.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.1%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1988534.029 | +0.0571 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 35.000 | +0.0177 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.315 | -0.0119 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
26.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.315 | +0.195 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.433 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.300 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1988534.029 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: 19.1%
Projected margin: 26.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.300 | 0.763 | 46.4% | $3.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.315 | 0.500 | 18.4% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |