ML Analysis — KANSAS CITY ORTHOPAEDIC INSTITUTE
CCN 170188 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.9%, 33.7%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5075589.000 | +0.4880 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4004312.294 | -0.2891 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.833 | -0.0358 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.102 | +0.0287 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
30.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.319 | +0.191 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.639 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 5075589.000 | -0.206 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.282 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 17.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: 21.1%
Projected margin: 30.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 101
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.282 | 0.847 | 56.5% | $5.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.361 | 0.506 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.319 | 0.402 | 8.3% | $546K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |