ML Analysis — KANSAS SURGERY & RECOVERY CENTER
CCN 170183 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 20.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.8%, 12.8%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2092776.867 | +0.0717 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.077 | -0.0255 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 160378.935 | -0.0236 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
29.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.077 | +0.416 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.260 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2092776.867 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.338 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: 20.0%
Projected margin: 29.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 112
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.338 | 0.813 | 47.6% | $3.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.077 | 0.459 | 38.3% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |