ML Analysis — VIA CHRISTI HOSPITAL WICHITA
CCN 170122 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.8%, 9.8%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 985144.409 | -0.0829 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 635.000 | -0.0759 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1059810.792 | +0.0736 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.454 | +0.0483 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.689 | -0.152 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.275 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 635.000 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.253 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 985144.409 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -7.6%
Projected margin: -6.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 649
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.253 | 0.321 | 6.9% | $5.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.689 | 0.820 | 13.2% | $870K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.725 | 0.758 | 3.3% | $497K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |