ML Analysis — ADVENTHEALTH OTTAWA
CCN 170014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.4%, 10.2%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.097 | +0.0301 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.181 | -0.0210 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.583 | -0.0184 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 36.000 | +0.0176 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Reimbursement Quality.
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
5.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.287 | +0.222 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.465 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.181 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1483024.889 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -5.1%
Projected margin: 5.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 99
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.181 | 0.763 | 58.1% | $3.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.287 | 0.518 | 23.1% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.535 | 0.564 | 2.9% | $433K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |