ML Analysis — GENESIS MEDICAL CENTER - DEWITT
CCN 161313 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.6%, 19.0%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.082 | -0.0269 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1771414.615 | +0.0268 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 13.000 | +0.0212 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.266 | -0.0147 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$868K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
14.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
IA distress rate: 67.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.266 | +0.241 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.521 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.427 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1771414.615 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $868K
Current margin: 10.9%
Projected margin: 14.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 82
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.427 | 0.622 | 19.5% | $525K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.266 | 0.318 | 5.2% | $343K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |