ML Analysis — TRINITY BETTENDORF
CCN 160104 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.5%, 19.1%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1118018.222 | -0.0644 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1159181.802 | +0.0614 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.082 | -0.0269 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 81.000 | +0.0106 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 586671.223 | -0.0095 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.7%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P26. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IA distress rate: 67.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.292 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1118018.222 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.213 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 81.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.525 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -3.7%
Projected margin: -1.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 22
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.292 | 0.377 | 8.5% | $899K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.525 | 0.629 | 10.4% | $688K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |