ML Analysis — NEUROPSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL OF INDIANA
CCN 154063 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.2%, 23.4%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 246949.200 | -0.1860 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 274576.780 | +0.1703 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 205597.049 | -0.0221 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.833 | +0.0175 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.4%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
11.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P79. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.833 | -0.285 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 246949.200 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.128 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.316 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.359 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -11.2%
Projected margin: 11.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 91
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.513 | 0.690 | 17.7% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.316 | 0.405 | 8.8% | $128K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |