ML Analysis — COMMUNITY STROKE AND REHABILITATION
CCN 153045 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.3%, 28.3%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 774042.886 | +0.1088 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 829948.200 | -0.1046 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.121 | +0.0231 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.6%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
24.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P87. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.757 | -0.215 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.636 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 829948.200 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.337 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: 6.7%
Projected margin: 24.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 86
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.360 | 0.684 | 32.5% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.337 | 0.391 | 5.5% | $185K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |