ML Analysis — LAFAYETTE REGIONAL REHABILITATION HO
CCN 153042 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.1%, 25.5%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 394193.750 | -0.1654 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 364928.500 | +0.1592 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.761 | +0.0440 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.337 | -0.0389 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.4%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
31.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P64. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.761 | +0.175 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 394193.750 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.594 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.551 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: 7.4%
Projected margin: 31.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 90
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.443 | 0.686 | 24.4% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.594 | 0.620 | 2.5% | $168K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |