ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL NORTHWEST INDIANA
CCN 152012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.8%, 21.8%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 311480.339 | -0.1770 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 353628.161 | +0.1606 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 138394.505 | -0.0244 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.134 | +0.0195 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.444 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.454 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 311480.339 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.245 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: -13.5%
Projected margin: 10.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.546 | 0.696 | 15.0% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.444 | 0.685 | 24.1% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.245 | 0.414 | 16.9% | $345K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |