ML Analysis — ASCENSION ST. VINCENT MERCY
CCN 151308 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.9%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1334452.056 | +0.0398 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1409326.667 | -0.0237 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 233815.231 | -0.0212 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
14.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P69. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.166 | +0.333 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.017 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.308 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.240 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1409326.667 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: 5.3%
Projected margin: 14.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.166 | 0.452 | 28.6% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.308 | 0.444 | 13.6% | $404K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |