ML Analysis — FRANCISCAN BEACON HOSPITAL
CCN 150191 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -43.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.5%, 10.1%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 967708.500 | -0.0854 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1387740.875 | +0.0332 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.105 | +0.0278 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 37780.400 | -0.0277 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Log(Beds).
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
59.8%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
66.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P85. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.039 | +0.451 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.225 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 967708.500 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.447 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.088 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: -43.4%
Projected margin: 66.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.465 | 0.820 | 35.5% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.039 | 0.465 | 42.6% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.225 | 0.635 | 41.0% | $371K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 40.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 97.9% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |