ML Analysis — UNITY PHYSICIANS HOSPITAL
CCN 150177 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.1%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.041 | -0.0275 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 59020.453 | -0.0270 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.367 | -0.0234 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 29.000 | +0.0187 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Occupancy.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
58.2%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
6.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P84. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.041 | +0.450 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.226 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 29.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.237 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1452863.931 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.084 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -6.4%
Projected margin: 6.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 91
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.041 | 0.568 | 52.7% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.226 | 0.488 | 26.2% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.679 | 0.735 | 5.6% | $843K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |