ML Analysis — PINNACLE HOSPITAL
CCN 150166 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.7%, 26.9%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3184358.889 | +0.2241 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3125440.667 | -0.1809 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.074 | +0.0367 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.126 | -0.0272 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.1%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
11.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P54. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.267 | +0.240 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.126 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3184358.889 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.409 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 1.8%
Projected margin: 11.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.585 | 0.742 | 15.7% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.126 | 0.444 | 31.8% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.267 | 0.452 | 18.5% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |