ML Analysis — COLUMBUS REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 150112 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.4%, 26.2%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.407 | +0.0240 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.257 | -0.0159 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 223.000 | -0.0116 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.033 | +0.0068 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 46%Turnaround possible (46%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.0%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P27. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.033 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.501 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.400 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 223.000 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1622341.628 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.325 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -0.9%
Projected margin: -0.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.501 | 0.707 | 20.6% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.642 | 0.729 | 8.7% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |